Showing posts with label Specialist Car Liquidation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Specialist Car Liquidation. Show all posts

Thursday, 15 December 2022


Who’s Really Affecting The Values Of Specialist High Performance Cars?,,,,,, 

The specialist high performance used car market is already seeing prices come under pressure and I predict that from 2023 onwards this market in the UK (both new and used cars) will see prices come under pressure like never before; and for reasons many will not appreciate. 

In truth there are many negative “Drivers” battering the market at the moment, but the most important factor, in terms of successful and profitable retailing and therefore the protection of residual values, (thus the customer’s monetary investment), is the levels of experience and expertise residing within the manufacturer themselves and their franchise dealer network. This more than anything else, will dictate levels of retailing success and the cost of ownership for customers trusting these businesses with their money. 

Sadly though the trading evidence suggest that not many manufacturers and franchised dealer networks operating within (and retailing products in) the specialist high performance market, have got the professionals required to do so successfully, thus protecting residual values and therefore the investments being made by customers. 

One of the worst (and baffling in equal measure) examples is the current trading narrative surrounding the BMW M5 in the UK, and what that then means for a customer(s) looking to dispose of one today, a business trying to retail them, or a customer looking to purchase one; who (by the way) are the only winners in the current trading landscape, providing they have access to the market knowledge required. And this negative trading narrative for the BMW M5 is not new; I have already explored the trading environment for this car before, in the article below which I wrote in June for my Used Car Business Development Blog; 


But first some history regarding this remarkable car, and one that is being undermined by both BMW (GB) Ltd themselves and their franchise dealer network in the UK. First launched in 1985 the M5 was a ground breaking car; the world at this time had never seen a car like it, is was a genuine game changer and I can remember selling the first two incarnations whilst working within the BMW network, and then selling all of them through my stock acquisitions business. 

In truth, and opinions will no doubt be divided, I still think the BMW M5 is the best car in its class, so for me, seeing the ownership proposition undermined by the BMW network itself, is puzzling albeit not surprising; why? Well because this is what happens when you don’t invest (both as the manufacturer and as a franchised dealer) in the professionals required to sell and then reacquire to sell again, a specialist high performance car like the BMW M5. 

So let’s explore this and look at the current trading and pricing narrative surrounding the M5 in the UK; to do so, let’s imagine that you had contacted me to sell your under 12 month old example. During our subsequent discussion and the process of valuation, (before then making a formal offer) I would begin by exploring the market trading reality, when it comes to availability, because this determines desire within purchasing audiences (both end users and the trade) so therefore prices. 

Now in the UK we are lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) to have easy access to the market trading reality, combined with a snapshot of real time and actual trading performance, including pricing. So for the benefit of this article I can declare that the screenshots being used were taken on or around the 22nd November. 

When looking at values of new and nearly new cars (those up to 12 months old) the manufacturer and the expertise contained within the franchised dealer network, always sets prices. Their trading behaviour (which is dictated by their level of expertise in both the associated new and used car markets) creates a trading narrative that then dictates the actual new car price, which is where we must begin. And unfortunately for BMW (or any manufacturer for that matter) the trading narrative surrounding any product is only as stable and/or strong as the weakest link in their retailing network. 

The screen shot below (taken from Autotrader – what new M5’s are doing, being advertised at a discount on a platform like this, is article on its own) clearly proves that the starting point for the pricing of a new M5 is £93,797:00; the car shown was the cheapest of the 9 new BMW M5’s being advertised on Autotrader that day. 

Now this is very bad news for anyone believing the (understandable) hype surrounding the car and who paid the list price of approximately (depending on the specification) £111,365:00. The dealer below has just cost you (at least) an additional £17,568:00 in immediate short term depreciation. 


Unfortunately this situation then makes a mockery of the BMW franchised dealers trying to support the product in the used car market. A search on the BMW Approved Used Car Locator on the same day lists under 6 month old versions being advertised for as little as £94,995:00, please see the screenshot below. 



Now the car at the bottom of the screenshot (a 5 month old used car) above is actually being advertised for £1,198:00 more than the advertised price for a new car, by another BMW franchised dealer on Autotrader; and that’s before you start negotiating. I say start negotiating, because when presented with a distressed selling picture surrounding a product (one as bad as this), the asking price is the last price you should be paying. 

In truth, those skilled in acquisition should be purchasing a new M5 for no more than £90,000:00; at least £21,365:00 behind list price. So what does this mean for the values and likely retail prices of the used 5 month old examples in the screenshot above? Well ask yourself a question. 

If a new M5 can be bought for £90,000:00 (and it can on this evidence) how much of a discount on this price would the 5 month old example require, in order to make it price competitive; in relation to a new car? Well one things for sure, it can’t be more expensive than the actual price of a new car, in that moment, and if new cars are available in volume. 

In my opinion, if the actual purchase price (at the moment and in this market) for a new M5 is £90,000:00. From here the knock-on effect for the values and sales prices for the 5 – 12 month old examples is likely to be very difficult for those having them in stock, or trying to dispose of them, to stomach. 

Personally, if I was a franchised dealer with an example in stock, I would not be advertising the car anywhere (more on this strategy in articles to come), because it is only adding to the problems in the UK market for M5’s. 

I would though be aggressively offering the car within the right (socioeconomic circles) and selected target audiences, expecting to get no more than £80,000:00 but willing to take £77,500:00, depending on the market knowledge of the customer eventually buying the car. Something that looks realistic, if a little “Ballsy,” especially when you see the further screenshot taken from the BMW Approved Used Car Locator below, showing 1 year old M5’s being advertised for as little as £69,998:00. 


So where does all this leave the customer with a 6 – 12 month old version to sell, because they need to reduce their financial exposure; a common event in markets being driven by the economic trade winds battering markets at the moment? Well in a hole, that’s where. 

In truth (when it comes to valuations) the M5 market is an interesting one, because in many ways the distressed sales message doesn’t make any sense. Unlike other specialist high performance saloons (the Porsche Taycan for example, where there were over 200 for sale on the Porsche Approved Used Car Locator – far too many for the likely demand in this new and in many ways overhyped market) there are only 28 up to 1 year old M5’s available for sale on the BMW Approved Used Car Locator. So the irony is that the car is actually in short supply; so why the distressed selling message? 

Anyway let’s put all this into context, in terms of the used car market for BMW M5’s and the disposal values owners of one year old M5’s are likely to receive? Well for a car similar to the one above, it will be £60,000:00, which equates to a depreciation rate in first 12 months (if you were naive enough to pay list price – but sadly many will have) of approximately £51,365:00 or 46%. 

This is an astonishing rate of depreciation for a specialist high performance car, especially one that appears to not be available in any great volume; new cars aside. In my opinion both the manufacturer and the BMW franchised dealer network should be ashamed of themselves. Be in no doubt trading narratives like this only happen when those lacking the expertise and experience required, to start retailing and handling specialist high performance products, become responsible for the retailing strategy. Quite frankly I am astounded. 

Most disappointing of all is that this trading narrative is so easily changed and turned into a positive, both for owners, retailers and residual values, providing that is, that the used car retailing, acquisitions and business development experience and expertise required, is in the business. Sadly for those owning specialist high performance cars like the M5 (those losing the astronomical sums involved) this expertise is looking to be in short supply at both BMW (the manufacturer) and within the BMW franchised dealer network; and just at the time when it is going to be most needed. 

In truth though, this problem is not BMW’s alone, the entire specialist high performance used car market looks over supplied to the point of overheating. With stock everywhere and a noticeable lack of relevant and essential expertise, private sellers and retailers of specialist high performance used cars are about to experience “Actual” prices coming under further duress. 

Despite enjoying growth upon growth over the last decade, the specialist high performance market looks massively over provided for at the moment; we have an abundance of £100K plus SUVs, saloons and sports cars, the volume of which will make the retailing challenges substantial for sellers; as the market struggles to find enough customers. 

That said, for those looking to enter this market and with access to right expertise, these cars will never have been so cheap. As much as all commodities markets can be bruising for sellers, all markets create winners and losers, and the specialist high performance used car market is no different. In the markets conditions to come, the winners will be savvy and well informed buyers, those with access to the expertise required to ensure that they are entering the market at prices previously only dreamt about. 

Take the year old M5 in the screenshot above; now this represents tremendous value in isolation, even so I would wager (on the evidence I have seen – in terms of used car retailing expertise) that I or another experienced acquisitions professional, could acquire the car for £65,000:00. Now for the next owner, this is a year old, 625 BHP, 0-60 MPH in 3.3 seconds, class leading, supercar performance saloon for £65,000:00. Quite a bargain. 

In truth it should be retailing for much more but regardless of this, with the pricing duress looming in specialist high performance used car markets, one person’s pain is another person’s gain. 

So where does the current trading narrative and the lack of expertise within the sector leave those looking to sell or purchase a specialist high performance car. Well for those needing to dispose of cars it will be a challenge; why? 

Well in market conditions like this (just those I predicted were coming, in my articles below in March and April) prices don’t correct by small margins, they correct by 10 – 20% from their previous high; and that is for the best examples; many will struggle to find any offers at all. For some owners reading this article, those not needing to sell their car, they can afford to gamble and look to return to the market when it has stabilised at it’s new level; probably in 18 - 24 months’ time. 



For those needing to sell immediately though, the picture is very different; my advice is to get ahead of both the depreciation curve and market sentiment whilst (and if) you still can. This will not be palatable and/or enjoyable but if you need the money, take it now; the first offer will always be the best offer and with the market evolving as it is, procrastination will probably cost you £Thousands. 

So with specialist high performance used car markets evolving at a pace, over supply leading to supply imbalances and a likely lack of purchasing liquidity within used car businesses, where to turn now for the owners of specialist high performances cars? Those looking for the right expertise and experience, that required to facilitate in the immediate liquidation of their car; a process requiring skill, expertise, the utmost discretion and excellence in execution? 

Well with funds available for immediate purchase and unrivalled experience in liquidating specialist high performance cars, including the contacts base within the professional community, (both franchised dealers and the most knowledgeable specialists), you could contact me for a market consultation. 

As much as I am not going to promise you for one moment that I work with every car that is offered, or with every owner that contacts me, I do choose to advise and help everyone who contacts me. In reality I can only go on to work actively with 10% of the owners who contact me; and their associated cars. 

Offering immediate cash purchase, (should circumstances dictate), or the facility to act as your trusted conduit to the market, returning the best prices, I am the ultimate solution provider for those looking to dispose of their specialist high performance car. 

For those looking to purchase though, the situation is far more beneficial, albeit just as challenging. Purchasing in market conditions such as those we are experiencing now, can be very lucrative and the right time to enter the market. Providing you have access to the expertise required to take advantage and ensure that (unlike the majority) you are not over paying in the current market. 

Offering unrivalled access to the market, I work with selected customers securing the best examples of specialist high performance cars and at the right prices, via a network and level of expertise that has been built over 25 years. 

Should you be interested in either disposing of, or purchasing a specialist high performance car, then please feel free to reach out to me directly on LinkedIn, via email at andrewb@andrewbanningsalessolutions.co.uk or on 07500 321539; so we can schedule a consultation call. 

Andrew.

Thursday, 1 December 2022


The Porsche Taycan Debacle!,,,, Part 2!,,,,, 

A lot of feedback and comments following last week’s article for my Used Car Business Development Blog

A lot of which has involved further discussing how the situation explored in the article occurred and what the solution is now, in terms of Porsche avoiding what now looks inevitable, and what looks now impossible to achieve in the short term; Porsche trading themselves back in to a positive (pricing and availability) situation for the Taycan. Something I have no doubt will prove to be far from easy. 

Now, I don’t want to use this article to go over the content of the last article, those interested and who haven’t see the article above, please follow the link which will take you directly to the article on my Used Car Business Development Blog

So how did Porsche get to here; a situation where their (relatively) brand new model (the Taycan) is available in used car markets in such volumes and appearing on the social media feeds for BCA auctions; and in volume. The last place by the way, that specialist high performance used car stock should be appearing, in terms of product image, the trading narrative, increasing desirability and protecting residual values. 

In truth it will not be down to one mistake and/or trading issue, but many, all of which now appear to be causing the “Perfect Storm” to form over the market for Porsche’s new electric sports car; and no doubt, about to send prices (therefore the residual values enjoyed by customers) spiralling downwards. 

And this is a useful example to explore; despite my criticism I have no “Beef” with Porsche, I could easily write this article about a plethora of other manufacturers, all of whom have similar problems with their premium products at the moment, (and will in the coming months as used car markets and pricing begin to unravel). I was highlighting the trading reality surrounding the Taycan for no other reason other than the image came up in my social media feeds, as the car concerned was being (very unhelpfully) “Prostituted” by BCA. 

So why are we now seeing specialist high performance used car stock like the Porsche Taycan appearing at BCA, listed for sale in great volumes on Autotrader (another one of the last places you should be listing specialist high performance used car stock – but that’s another article) and in such volume on the manufacturers approved used car website? All of which is damaging the trading perception and the residual values of the associated product. 

Well in truth there will be many reasons, some of which are explored (in brevity) below; 

The New Car Market 

I’m not sure how much of the electric/alternative propulsion market is being driven by manufacturers or by genuine demand from consumers, and herein lies a major problem for all manufacturers; all of whom by the way, spend very little time (if any) with their target audiences. But I have a suspicion that this is the dream of the manufacturers, not consumers, (especially in the markets Porsche are operating within), which is dangerous because it leaves manufacturers at odds with the purchasing and ownership desires of their customers. A very dangerous trading situation that never ends well; for the manufacturer that is. 

Like many of my peers in professional acquisitions circles, I spend a lot of time with my ear to ground, listening to consumers in specialist high performance markets and talking with my fellow professionals, and I have never spoken to anyone declaring that they can’t wait to own an all-electric performance car. No doubt there are some, but not many, and herein lies a problem; oversupply in the associated market. 

The reality is that Tesla were first adopters in this market and in my opinion, too many manufacturers have been distracted by all “The Noise” surrounding the market and misreading the potential, in terms of potential sales volumes. For the few consumers aching to buy an all-electric specialist high performance car, there is now a lot of choice with competition from Audi and Tesla, to name just a few. 

My gut feeling (we must wait and see if I am right) is that this sector of new car market is already over-supplied, in terms of product, and this will inevitably lead to heavy discounting, when far too many cars are chasing too few customers. 

The Used Car Market 

The associated used car market for the product is still very much at an embryonic stage, and just when the product needs careful nurturing and a narrative of exclusivity and limited supply to be forming, the opposite is actually happening. In reality, I suspect that finding funds within the trade for a Porsche Taycan could be verging on impossible at the moment. 

In the last article (link above) I advised of the 453 used Porsche Taycans being advertised for sale on the Porsche Approved Used Car Website and on Autotrader alone; in my opinion this is far more than the market can handle. 

And this will lead to a confusing picture for consumers; there might be new car delays and extended lead times, but this will be due to component and raw material shortages, not excessive demand and sales success. This will be confusing for consumers because on one hand they may have to wait for a new car, but they are spoilt for immediately available choice, when it comes to the used car market. Even Porsche had 186 used examples on their used car locator last week, a figure that had risen (from 186 previously) to 193 by the day I wrote this article; far too many for the likely demand. 

And these are not cheap cars; let’s assume that with only 49 of the cars on the Porsche website being advertised for sale at £100,000 or less, that the average SIV for the UK stock holding of Porsche Taycans, is £110,000. That means that currently the Porsche network in the UK has £21,230,000 invested in Taycans, with that figure likely to rise, bearing in mind the stock level is increasing, not decreasing; which tends to be the case when expensive and highly specialised products are being handled by networks lacking in the expertise and experience required. 

When sales slow, stock holdings increase and unfortunately, eventually everyone trading in commodities markets (even the Porsche network) runs out of money; causing real problems for trading liquidity to materialise. From here businesses stop buying (therefore stop supporting their own product) and from there owners and professionals looking to sell a Taycan, will find it increasingly difficult to impossible, to dispose of their vehicle. 

When this trading environment takes hold and you are a business (Porsche franchise or independent specialist) still purchasing Taycans for stock, so therefore about to own the 194th example currently available for sale (in the case of the Porsche franchised dealer network), you will no doubt only be purchasing because it is the cheapest example available. This situation only has to occur twice for (real time) prices to begin to go down substantially. 

Economic Headwinds and Finance 

Like many other countries, the UK has some challenges, when it comes to specialist high performance markets and the prevailing economic environment, that then drives demand; firstly, the market dynamic during the pandemic. During the pandemic central bankers and governments decided it was good a good idea to pump free money in to markets; markets where there weren’t enough products for that money to then purchase. 

This drove up prices and caused asset price inflation; including in the Automotive Sector. This, along with easy to access cheap finance, created a once in a lifetime market where “Professional Selling” was no longer required, but now the party is over. Cheap finance and the uptake of PCP as a purchase mechanism drove Automotive markets and this in turn brought ownership of specialist high performance cars into the aspirations of a different customer, in terms of their socio-economic profile. 

Just though (unfortunately) the profile of customer now being hit by the cost of rising finance costs, along with their cost of living (mortgages etc.), and therefore likely to be looking to unwind financial exposure to the assets concerned. The evidence is already there, that this is affecting the specialist high performance car market (along with other commodities markets), with high (and increasing) levels of supply. 

With sales also slowing, both liquidity and the appetite to invest in this profile of used car stock will be running out within trade markets. Meaning that those needing to dispose of assets in a hurry will find it increasingly difficult to find the funds, and almost impossible to meet the settlement figure required for terminating their PCP agreement in advance of the full term. 

These sellers, when faced with this market dynamic and needing to sell, can then only do so by driving prices down to the level required to gain investment interest. I have worked in these markets before and as much as they are very lucrative for those skilled in acquisition, they can be brutal for those who aren’t. And that’s all sellers; both those customers owning but needing to dispose of assets, and the associated franchise dealer networks. 

Lack of Used Car Retailing Expertise 

This may sound overly harsh, and I have no direct insight into the Porsche retailing network, but the current trading picture invariably only materialises when there is a lack of used car retailing, acquisitions and business development expertise within the associated network, and within the parent manufacturer. 

This comes as no surprise to me, manufacturers and franchise dealer networks have failed to develop used car professionals (and sales professionals for that matter) for over a decade; choosing instead to over rely on technology and polo shirt wearing “Product Geniuses” to handle incoming sales enquiries and drive sales. This lack of foresight and investment in personnel, is about to come back and haunt the sector as a whole; including the Porsche network. 

Every used car network/business I have worked with bar none, has set its sales operation up to be “Liked” rather than “Trusted” with subservient staff (not successful sales professionals) waiting to handle incoming sales enquiries. This may have been fine for the markets leading up to now, but now? Not a chance! 

If there had been a genuinely successful and grown up used car professional within the Porsche network, this situation would never have occurred, because they have would have foreseen the dangers of the trading conditions and handled the current situation very differently. It is not my job to give Porsche all the answers for free, but if I was responsible for used car retailing the within the Porsche network, the last thing that I would allow to happen is for 193 to Taycan’s be available for sale on the Approved Used Car Locator on their website. Even if that is the case! If you want to create desire within premium product target audiences, you must first understand your market and the profile customer you are trying to attract. 

If you want to create desire to own, you have to create the narrative and perception of exclusivity. The profile of customer in specialist high performance markets is an ABC1 demographically grouped professional; a professional where both their perception of availability and the actual trading narrative is important. 

A Google search advises that there are 45 Porsche franchise dealers in the UK, which means that on average they have between 4 and 5 used Taycan’s in stock each. This is not a picture of product in short supply, therefore in great demand. So I would immediately ban all Porsche dealerships from having more than 1 used Taycan listed on the Approved Used Car Locator, regardless of how many are in stock. 

The amount of used car professionals who can’t understand why this should be the case and requiring further explanation on the benefits this policy would immediately bring, to levels of sales and profitability, would tell me immediately about the lack of used car expertise in the associated network! 

Invariably, the situation we are exploring happens when a manufacturer F#cks Up, misreads a market (in terms of volume potential) and creates a problem of its own making. When it also coincides with a period of market evolution and challenging trading conditions, frank and to the point conversations are required, with professionals possessing the expertise and experience required, if the situation is to be handled to everyone’s benefit. 

That fact that this article is being written, (exploring all of the above), tells me that there is not the used car market expertise required within Porsche, or their franchise dealer network. All Auction Disposal Policies One thing not grasped by 95% of the Automotive sector, is the role that “All Auction” disposal policies are playing in the downfall of their own business. I will not expand upon this here, those wishing to challenge their thinking on this issue, can follow the links below to some of the articles exploring this argument on my Used Car Business Development Blog



But rest assured, if the Porsche network did not adhere to policies like this and more importantly, it had used car stock acquisitions expertise and professionals within their network, the used car retailing world (including customers) would not be seeing Porsche Taycan’s being undermined as product, by appearing in the social media feeds of auction companies. 

I will say no more, other than until the sector grasps the folly of listening to the childish arguments for a little trade profit, and therefore continuing to build the business of others, (the auction companies) rather than investing in their own business, then the current trading “Status Quo” will remain. 

The Taycan Itself 

Dare I say it, the car may just not be that good, enjoyable or practical to own! There are stories abound of reliability problems (I cannot quote my sources directly) some of them very serious. This will not be a “Good Look” with the profile of customer purchasing this car. 

Conclusion 

In truth, and this in important for customers and those businesses operating within specialist high performance markets, the situation explored in this (and the last article) leaves everyone involved now operating in a very challenging market and trading landscape. High levels of used car stock in specialist high performance markets, is normally the first sign that consumer confidence is evaporating, which in turn slows the rate of sales, leading to liquidity issues. 

When you have market conditions involving little stock investment liquidity and low consumer confidence, (as we have now), only the finest most unique (in terms of specification) examples tend to find competition to be purchased, thus sensible offers. For the remainder of those needing to dispose of a specialist high performance car, the onus is on you to convince those with cash to spend that yours is the car they should be buying, which is possible, but you only have one thing to offer; a car at a price! 

In market conditions like this (just those I predicted were coming, in my articles below in March and April) prices don’t correct by small margins, they correct by 10 – 20% from their previous high; and that is for the best examples, many will struggle to find offers at all. For some reading this article, those not needing to sell their car, they can afford to gamble and look to return to the market when it has stabilised at it’s new level; probably in 18 - 24 months’ time. 



For those needing to sell though the picture is very different; my advice is to get ahead of both the depreciation curve and market sentiment whilst (and if) you still can. This will not be palatable and/or enjoyable but if you need the money, take it now; the first offer will always be the best offer and with the market evolving as it is, procrastination will probably cost you £Thousands. 

So with specialist high performance used car markets evolving at a pace, over supply leading to supply imbalances and a likely lack of liquidity, where to turn now for the owners of specialist high performances cars? Those looking for the right expertise and experience, that required to facilitate in the immediate liquidation of their car; a process requiring skill, expertise, the utmost discretion and excellence in execution? 

Well with funds available for immediate purchase and unrivalled experience in liquidating specialist high performance cars, including the contacts base within the professional community, (both franchised dealers and the most knowledgeable specialists), you could contact me for a market consultation. 

As much as I am not going to promise you for one moment that I work with every car that is offered, or with every owner that contacts me, I do choose to advise and help everyone who contacts me. In reality I can only go on to work actively with 10% of the owners who contact me; and their associated cars. Offering immediate cash purchase, (should circumstances dictate), or the facility to act as your trusted conduit to the market, returning the best prices, I am the ultimate solution provider for those looking to dispose of their specialist high performance car. 

For those looking to purchase though, the situation is far more beneficial, albeit just as challenging. Purchasing in market conditions such as those we are experiencing now, can be very lucrative and the right time to enter the market. Providing you have access to the expertise required to take advantage and ensure that unlike the majority, you are not over paying in the current market. 

Offering unrivalled access to the market, I work with selected customers securing the best examples of specialist high performance cars and at the right prices, via a network and level of expertise that has been built over 30 years. 

Should you be interested in either disposing of, or purchasing a specialist high performance car, then please feel free to reach out to me directly on LinkedIn, via email at andrewb@andrewbanningsalessolutions.co.uk or on 07500 321539; should you wish to arrange a consultation call. 

Andrew.

Friday, 11 November 2022


A Time Of Reckoning For Used Car Markets! 

Well they say that a picture paints a thousand words and the image above certainly tells those looking and those capable of reading “The Signs” an awful lot about the state of the Automotive Sector in the UK; both in terms of where some used car markets (and prices) are heading and the associated levels of expertise contained within the sector itself. 

In truth and to those that understand the associated used car markets, the image above is a worrying indictment of both the associated used car market, the Automotive Sector itself and the lack of prerequisite expertise in some used car markets. Be in no doubt though, images like this will cause some problems for certain used car markets in the UK, especially specialist and high performance used car markets. 

And do not think this is an isolated case, in truth I could have used one of many images from Lamborghini’s to Rolls Royce’s to make this point; it is the volume of specialist high performance used car stock appearing at BCA (including their social media feeds) that is concerning. 

So let’s cut immediately to the chase; specialist high performance used car stock (like the Porsche Taycan in the image above) should NEVER be appearing in BCA Auctions, (or any non-manufacturer closed auction for that matter), on their social media feeds or on their website. Those responsible for sending this car here may be many things (professionally), but capable of operating successfully within the used car markets catering for stock like this, they certainly are not! 

Yet, and despite all this, I understand how the Automotive Sector has got to here. “Here” being the constant elevation of BCA as an organisation. From the “Toilet” where businesses should be sending all their crap and their mistakes, to the perception of being a premium retailer/supplier of specialist high performance used car stock holdings; and all for free. Well done people, rounds of applause all round! 

So in order to help those deluded enough to think that sending specialist high performance used car stock (like this) to an auction like BCA is a good idea, let me enlighten you as to what those who operate in the associated used car markets, take from the image above. 

Firstly, the car in the image above is now the car that will never be purchased by those knowledgeable about, and operating within, the associated used car market. Word spreads very quickly in the specialist high performance used car markets and no one wants to purchase the stock that has been prostituted, and within the wrong circles. So if the dealer taking the car in part exchange or looking to dispose of the car because it is overage used car stock, was looking to achieve market value, this is now highly unlikely. In fact (in reality) all they have achieved is having to make their example the cheapest available in the country, if it is to be liquidated. 

To be fair, the car could be here because of the unhealthy adherence (unhealthy that is, for all those businesses advocating the ridiculous policy) to an “All Auction” disposal policy. Now I will not use this article to revisit the trading lunacy of “All Auction” disposal policies, I have covered this subject many times in the articles written for my Used Car Business Development Blog; the articles below being just a few of them. 



For context though, and in brevity; “All Auction” disposal policies were a work of genius by no one, apart that is from the Auction companies themselves. Their uptake caused the majority of genuinely successful used car professionals (those capable of handling specialist high performance used car stock like this) to leave the employ of franchised dealer networks. To such a degree that franchised dealer networks are now hooked to Auctions as an outsourced resource supplier; one doing the jobs they should be doing themselves, rather than giving a business away for free! 

So back to image and the car concerned, what does it tell me? It tells me two things; not only that the dealer/organisation/individual concerned does not possess the skills and experience required to operate within the associated used car market, it also tells me that the market for the car is overheated, over supplied and about to see some price correction; why? 

Well, the first thing a professional who is capable of operating within the used car markets involved does, (upon seeing images like this), is ask important questions. The first being why did this happen? Followed very quickly by, if I was in the market to purchase a car like this, what is the genuine availability and what does that mean for prices; that outside of all the narrative and hype peddled on prices by Autotrader, EBay Motors, Cap HPI, etc. 

Well, I will let the images below set the scene; the first from the Porsche Approved Used Car website and the second taken from the “Blind Leading The Blind” guide to used car values, and the platform that should never be used by people and/or organisations with high performance specialist cars to sell; Autotrader. 


 Autotrader 


As you can see (as much as there may be a little overlap) there are currently 185 used Taycan’s listed for sale on the Porsche Approved Used Car website and 267 on Autotrader; that’s 452 in total! 

I can also ascertain that the cheapest “Advertised” (key word; “Advertised” does not mean that the car will sell for this value – anything but) price for a Taycan in the UK is currently £82,490; please see the image above. 

So both the volume of stock available and the socio-economic profile of the buyer for cars like this, tells me that the market is massively over provided for at the moment. So, regardless of new car production delays, it is a buyer’s market for Porsche Taycan’s at the moment. And then we come to the one sitting at BCA, the one being (very unhelpfully) over exposed by BCA themselves; when (unless it is a Cinch car that is not selling – which of course it won’t) they do not even own the vehicle. This is what happens (Accountants and Senior Directors, those that have never run used car businesses) when you agree to enter “All Auction” disposal arrangements with organisations lacking in the experience and expertise required. Your car now becomes the cheapest in the country; if (that is) it can be sold at all? 

Now to add context, let me explore this argument; you ring me to buy the car, I point out all the above, and the fact that it is at BCA, so every professional possessing the experience and expertise required, now knows about the car and the fact that it hasn’t (yet, and at the time of writing this article) been sold. I would advise that the car advertised at £82,490 sets market value, which is actually far below this in reality, because there is too much stock; supply and demand will now be driving prices down. 

I respectfully point out that in a market of 452 used Taycan’s, the last thing any retail customer interested in the car has to do, is pay the asking price. If I was interested in purchasing a Porsche Taycan I would tell the dealer that I will contact every one of the 18 examples currently advertised at under £90,000 and offer 10% below the asking price, knowing full well that one of them will have no other option than to accept. 

I would probably ring the one advertised at £82,490 (the cheapest) first when the conversation would be quite simple. It would proceed along the lines of this; I will offer you £72,500 for the car (this will probably not be accepted but I will use this to flush out their best price) and advise that I will give them an hour before ringing the next cheapest example and making an offer for that. So don’t hang around, if it’s longer than an hour I will have probably moved on. 

Unfortunately, and as much as this supply and demand imbalance can occur in all used car markets, in specialist and high performance used car markets the ramifications of an over supplied market are far more damaging for real prices. There are far fewer buyers and those who are in the market, tend to be far more knowledgeable and more successful in their professional lives. 

So what does this mean for the business or the individual who was foolish enough to send the car to BCA. Well we end up here; I’m pretty confident that the car advertised at £82,490 could be purchased for £75,000 - £77,500 and in a market with 452 examples currently available for sale, if I was to invest in the car (as a retail opportunity and because I wanted to have the 453rd example available in the UK) it would have to be the cheapest. Would I bid £70,000? Absolutely not! I would guess that in this over supplied market, fear will have taken hold and most of the competition will now not be buying; therefore there will be little competition to own the car, so why should I? 

So in reality the associated used car market probably has it’s first under £70,000 (in the trade) Porsche Taycan, and no I wouldn’t buy the car for stock. I would though work with the current owners (but only after qualification) and use their money, combined with my skills and experience, in order to find a buyer for the car. But before any of this could take place, we would have to explore all of the above; and the reasons why they have reduced the desirability and therefore the value of the car in the image. 

In truth the image above and the many others that have appeared on BCA’s social media feeds recently, does nothing other than support a feeling that I have had for a while. I have suspected for a long time that there is a day of reckoning coming for prices and residual values in specialist high performance used car markets. Too many manufacturers have produced far too many cars, become overly emboldened by a market that only existed because central bankers pumped markets full of free cash during the pandemic, and whilst there was a limited supply of products to invest that money into. All of which is about to unwind and inevitably lead to the fragile (and overpriced) pricing eco-system to come tumbling down. 

There is also another driver in the market that is about to unwind; the disappearance of cheap finance. Cheap finance rates combined with the creative use of PCP finance agreements, brought specialist high performance cars into the ownership aspirations of a different socio-economic group of customers. Just the profile of customer who may now be struggling to make the payments, along with increased mortgage payments and the cost of living. 

Although we are only just entering the period of time when all the financial largesse of the pandemic has to be paid for, in the past this profile of customer has tended to bail out of unaffordable assets very quickly, then distressing the associated asset markets. Specialist high performance cars are no different and we must wait and see how many specialist high performance cars fall into this bracket. 

My read of the market is that it will be a lot. If Autotrader is anything to go by (again though, the LAST place that specialist high performance cars should be advertised, but a useful barometer of the desperate) where there are currently 297 McLaren’s, 201 Bentley Bentayga’s and 135 Lamborghini Urus’s being advertised for sale! This is a very distressed sales and marketing message for the associated manufacturers and the used car markets concerned. 

In reality any private individual or non-automotive specialist businesses looking to sell one of these cars will not be able to do so; unless it is the cheapest available, and by £Thousands. If you do not possess the specialised expertise and experience required in order to operate successfully within the market you are entering, (whether you are an automotive specialist retailer or not) the only advantage you have is the ability to attract purchasers via price. All of which will be trade buyers though; other private buyers/organisations do not tend to purchase “Big Ticket” specialist high performance cars from peoples driveways, as explored in the article below. 


Now I might be wrong; the vendor may get very lucky and sell the car via BCA. It would be interesting to get the story and the full facts, including the actual price and the profile of buyer; trade or private individual. Personally I doubt it and in any evet, this information will not be forthcoming, it is not in BCA’s interest to shine the “Light of Truth” on this matter. 

So where does all this leave those looking to sell a specialist high performance car? Well, in a very challenging market and trading landscape, that’s where. High levels of used car stock in specialist high performance markets, is normally the first sign that consumer confidence is evaporating, which in turn slows the rate of sales, leading to liquidity issues. 

When you enter a market with little stock investment liquidity and low consumer confidence, (as we are now), only the finest most unique examples tend to find competition for purchase, thus sensible offers. For the rest the onus is on you to convince those with cash to spend that yours is the car they should be buying, which is possible, but you only have one thing to offer; a car at a price! 

In market conditions like this (just those I predicted were coming, in my articles below in March and April) prices don’t correct by small margins, they correct by 10 – 20% from their previous high; and that is for the best stock, many will struggle to find offers at all. For many reading this article, those not needing to sell their car, they can afford to gamble and look to return to the market when it has stabilised at it’s new level; probably in 18 - 24 months’ time. 



For those needing to sell the picture is very different and my advice is to get ahead of both the depreciation curve and market sentiment whilst (and if) you still can. This will not be palatable and/or enjoyable but if you need the money, take it now; the first offer will always be the best offer and with the market evolving as it is, procrastination will cost you £Thousands. 

So with specialist high performance used car markets evolving at a pace, over supply leading to supply imbalances and liquidity in used car markets running out, where to turn now for the owners of specialist high performances cars; those looking for the right expertise and experience? That required to facilitate in the immediate liquidation of their car; a process requiring skill, expertise, the utmost discretion and excellence in execution? 

Well with funds available for immediate purchase and unrivalled experience in liquidating specialist high performance cars, including the contacts base within the professional community, (both franchised dealers and the most knowledgeable specialists), you could contact me for a market consultation. 

As much as I am not going to promise you for one moment that I work with every car that is offered, or with every owner that contacts me, I do choose to advise and help everyone who contacts me. In reality I can only go on to work actively with 10% of the owners who contact me; and their associated cars. 

Offering immediate cash purchase, (should circumstances dictate), or the facility to act as your trusted conduit to the market, returning the best prices, I am the ultimate solution provider for those looking to dispose of their specialist high performance car. 

Please feel free to reach out to me directly on LinkedIn, via email at andrewb@andrewbanningsalessolutions.co.uk or on 07500 321539; should you wish to arrange a consultation call. 

Andrew.

Friday, 15 April 2022


So You’ve Got A Porsche To Sell!,,,,, Get Over Yourself!,,,,,,,,,,,,, 

A provocative title but an important attention grabber for my latest report on the specialist high performance used car market; following on from the recent article (link below) and coming as we all enjoy the Easter break. 


Now I will immediately add the caveat that the market is becoming the most difficult to read and navigate since the one experienced leading up to and during the financial crisis; 2007 – 2009. 

By the very nature of what I do, I speak to a lot of people trying to sell their specialist high performance car, and with the peak of the market for prices now long gone, most owners looking to sell their car are now in danger of missing the market and the last opportunity to secure sensible offers. Before the ever increasing and inevitable lack of liquidity within the market leaves all but the finest examples struggling to secure offers; and with this in mind I thought I would leave you all with a market synopsis to consider over your Easter break. 

As much as the market is too difficult to read and assess for owners, it will result in most owners failing to secure sensible offers, and this will no doubt be due to two fatal flaws in their decision making process; greed and naivety. Whilst saying this though, I also appreciate that it is impossible for busy successful professionals to understand the workings of specialist markets so, to try and help, I thought I would advise on the evolution of market reality and the drivers effecting pricing; including what that will then mean for prices. 

In truth the sentiment contained within the title above could be applied to all the owners of specialist high performance cars, not just Porsches; the same disposal and trading challenges apply although they all have their own individual markets, within the market sector as a whole. I could’ve just as easily substituted Porsche for Lamborghini, McLaren, Bentley, Maserati, Aston Martin or included BMW M Power models, Audi RS Models and Mercedes AMG models. 

So why do I predict such a challenging market for owners trying to dispose of high performance specialist cars? Well, as much as I don’t want to repeat the content contained within the article above, (those interested can find the article on my Used Car Business Development Blog by following the embedded link), in reality there are two fundamental challenges; the market itself and the understandable lack of experience in the market by owners. So let’s start with the market, because as explored in greater detail in the previous article above, it’s very, very quiet! 

The market (and therefore prices) is driven by a lot of things but consumer confidence and sentiment drive markets at the retail end of the high performance specialist car market; supply and demand then drives prices. That said there are markets within markets, where factors like funding structures effect the ability to sell your car, therefore both saleability and pricing. 

So in isolation, let’s look at the Porsche market; one containing many individual markets; the new/nearly new market, the second hand market and the classic market. Ignoring the classic market for this article, let’s first look at the new/nearly new car market. With new car production still facing some challenges this has led to some Porsche retailers paying over the “Original” list price new for some under 2 year old cars. However I predict this window is closing as a lot of this stock (that purchased as long ago as August/September 2021) remains unsold within the Porsche retail network, thus reducing the networks ability to keep investing in further stock and more importantly, effecting stock investment confidence. 

So for the owners of up to 2 year old cars, especially 911’s and other desirable low production models; those 1 owner vehicles with high/unique levels of specifications and low mileages, there still may be hope of securing the last of the “Silly Money,” but be quick; I predict that this will not last much beyond the Easter break. 

For traditional used cars though, the market is becoming a lot more challenging, with the “Perfect Storm” of negative market drivers forming over the market; all of which will affect the owners’ ability to sell their car, most of whom then fall into the trap of trying to retail the car themselves via platforms like Autotrader or Pistonheads. 

Now, as understandable as this thought process may be, this is a ridiculous strategy and notion, the reasons for which are so expansive, (so not for repeating here) but are all explored in the article below; 


In the article above I explored all reasons why, in reality, this process is flawed, but one thing making the sale of older high performance and specialist cars far more challenging, is the changing finance market. 

Competitive and creative funding structures play a pivotal role in the sale of specialist high performance cars; with the vast majority of purchases involving a funding structure that includes a deferred payment in the form of a guaranteed residual value/buyback value. What most would understand as a PCP or Personal Lease agreement. 

These funding structures/agreements are vital to the specialist high performance market as they bring increased levels of affordability to the expensive car market. However remove the deferred payment structure (the finance agreement involving a guaranteed residual value/buyback value) and the funding landscape changes dramatically; with the cost of acquiring a vehicle increasing substantially. 

In the last two months, and since writing my previous article, it has been interesting to see how many finance companies are now removing these funding structures for older cars and this further effects the market, making selling the stock involved considerably harder; which can only be “Hedged Against” and overcome by offering this profile of stock at far lower retail prices. 

So if this is an abridged summary of the market challenges, let’s explore some of the personality traits conspiring to stop owners from being able to dispose of their cars. In the main there is a lot of misplaced hubris bordering on arrogance when it comes to many owners, many of whom completely overestimate what it is they have for sale. Too many think they have bought an investment; the vast majority haven’t, what they have for sale is a premium product that depreciates at a slower rate, but one that has very few routes for disposal. 

Most like to also forget the price of reconditioning and preparing cars of this ilk for sale; it is an inconvenient truth that the costs of running, servicing and preparing these cars for retail is extortionate. Yet all this gets forgotten in the mind-set of the vast majority of owners looking to sell their specialist high performance car, because their car is different, the best available and not effected by market forces. 

I could go on but I won’t, I will just recommend that all those with a specialist high performance car to sell, (those with it currently up for sale on Autotrader and/or Pistonheads and wondering why the phone isn’t ringing), take a moment to look beyond their car and look upon it as being no different to a Mars Bar; a commodity that has a value. 

For most reading this, the decision is one of whether to take the money today or waiting for prices to recover from the correction that is coming. Now predicting prices 12 months hence is difficult; in truth I don’t get involved, but one thing I do know is that price corrections are expensive and not gradual affairs. 

When you enter a market with little stock investment liquidity and low consumer confidence, (as we are now), only the finest most unique examples tend to find competition for purchase, thus sensible offers. For the rest the onus is on you to convince those with cash to spend that yours is the car they should be buying, which is possible, but you only have one thing to offer; a car at a price! 

In market conditions like this prices don’t correct by small margins, they correct by 10 – 20% from their previous high; and that is for the best stock, many will struggle to find offers at all. For many reading this article, those not needing to sell their car, they can afford to gamble and look to return to the market when it has stabilised at it’s new level; probably in 12 months’ time.  

For those needing to sell the picture is very different and my advice is to get ahead of both the depreciation curve and market sentiment whilst you can. This will not be palatable and/or enjoyable but if you need the money, take it now; the first offer will always be the best offer and with the market evolving as it is, procrastination will cost you £Thousands. 

So with liquidity in used car markets running out, where to turn now for the owners of specialist high performances cars; those looking for the right expertise and experience? That required to facilitate in the immediate liquidation of their car; a process requiring skill, expertise, the utmost discretion and excellence in execution? 

Well with funds available for immediate purchase and unrivalled experience in liquidating specialist high performance cars, including the contacts base within the professional community, (both franchised dealers and the most knowledgeable specialists), you could contact me for a market consultation. 

As much as I am not going to promise you for one moment that I work with every car that is offered, or with every owner that contacts me, I do choose to advise and help everyone who contacts me. In reality I can only work actively with 10% of the owners who contact me; and their associated cars. 

Offering immediate cash purchase, (should circumstances dictate), or the facility to act as your trusted conduit to the market, returning the best prices, I am the ultimate solution provider for those looking to dispose of their specialist high performance car. 

Please feel free to reach out to me directly on LinkedIn, via email at andrewb@andrewbanningsalessolutions.co.uk or on 07500 321539; should you wish to arrange a consultation call. 

Happy Easter everyone,,,,,,, 

Andrew.

Monday, 11 April 2022



Are We Buy Any Car Learning A Painful Lesson? 

In my opinion the answer is yes and this will result in a very challenging disposals landscape for all owners looking to sell their car; not just those looking to dispose of high performance specialist cars. The customers with whom I am working. 

To add clarity to my opinion, let me give you all some feedback from the country’s much talked about valuation and disposals portal; and here’s the headline figure. From my evidence, (which is available to anyone requesting it – including the lawyers acting on behalf of the company), during the period between 15th and 31st March We Buy Any Car have reduced some valuations by 9.4%. Yes, you heard that right, 9.4%; a huge market correction within 16 days and one that will have ramifications for the market and We Buy Any Car. 

Now bearing in mind that markets for the stock profile concerned (or any stock profile that We Buy Any Car will be acquiring) haven’t moved that much, the real question is why the collapse in their offer prices? To answer this let me first advise everyone how I use We Buy Any Car Valuations to gauge their sentiment in the used car market. 

Being a stock acquisitions professional myself it is important to know what the competition are up to. Although We Buy Any Car aren’t my direct competition (I am operating in the specialist high performance car market – one their algorithm can’t navigate and compute) they are an important barometer to how the logarithm based on-line disposal companies are operating; and, more importantly indicative of how they are still unable to accurately read the market and values. 

This is important because courtesy of Philip Schofield they are in everyone’s psyche; with their advertising programme (so effective) that they have convinced the British pubic that they are the “Go To” company for the disposal of their car. All of which is very important when you understand the ownership model and the umbrella of companies under which We Buy Any Car sits. We Buy Any Car are owned the auction house BCA, which also owns the on-line used car retailer Cinch; remember Rylan Clarke and all the associated adverts? Now in the battle for used car market place share 

We Buy Any Car is important to Cinch, which will need used car stock at an industrial level if the bills are to be paid; Rylan and Philip will not be cheap! 

As a consequence of all this I continually put a selection of vehicles through their valuations process to gauge the effectiveness of their valuations algorithm; the results of which are both interesting and alarming. So why do I think they have reduced their valuations by such a degree? 

Well Cinch are likely to have many operational and delivery problems, some of which were explored and discussed in the recent article written for my Used Car Business Development Blog, link below; 


But from what I can see their main problem is their stock level and slowing sales; selling stock at a profit is (of course) vital to the success of every used car business, even Cinch. On the day of writing this article (1st April) Cinch had 10,617 cars in stock; that is double the stock holding I have noticed them carrying thus far this year and significantly more than one of their online competitors Cazoo; who on the same day was carrying 6,686 cars. 

Now there are many reasons why Cinch are likely to have gotten into this position, not all of which can be covered in detail in this article, but their problems will include the following. 

  • They misread the market and weren’t buying at the start of the pandemic when they should’ve been. 
  • They then joined the “Blind Leading The Blind” feeding frenzy for stock, (along with the associated prices), when they should’ve been focused on retailing and buying selectively.  
  • Purchasing via a valuations logarithm; which appears to be not fit for purpose and working from a too narrow and flawed data cut. 
  • A quantity over quality purchasing environment. 
  • Over reliance on technology and no access to the used car business development professionals required. 
  • Their model is only fit for purpose in one market but is being deployed in multiple used car markets, in the hope of adding scale. 

But the issue I want to discuss here is the problems associated with valuation algorithms and then using a valuation algorithm to scale up a used car business. I want to look at this because you can’t achieve profitable scale in multiple used car markets, let alone via a valuation algorithm. In reality Cinch (just like Cazoo no doubt) are discovering the limits of their valuations process and have been caught out. 

There is no doubt that in certain used car markets a valuations algorithm can drive used car success, but it is only as good as the data put into the algorithm; and in the fragmenting used car market of today, it would appear that Cinch are trying to operate in many used car markets, having acquired stock via the same method; their valuation logarithm. 

My suspicion is that (and I am happy to be corrected by the person responsible at Cinch) the data for the valuations algorithm is supplied by their auction business; BCA. Now the value of this data is highly questionable; it is too narrow in profile (age and mileage), provided by an unknown mix of private and trade buyers, and is not supported by any ongoing retail sales data. All of which was further explored in the article referenced above, when I did warn that the money would run out! 

So what does this mean for the market, values and for those looking to dispose of their car? Well in truth the unsustainable crazy market of the last 12 months is beginning to unwind and effecting sentiment within all used car markets; albeit to varying degrees. Now this is not the article to further expand on this important market dynamic; those interested in a more in-depth analysis can feel free to follow the link to my article below, where this trading issue is explored in more detail. 


Unfortunately the trading reality and behaviour patterns of the used car market at the moment, reminds me of the used car market experienced during the financial crisis; a market when liquidity for stock investment ran out, albeit for different reasons than the market of today. The liquidity problems of today are all caused by inexperienced professionals not knowing how to read the market and paying too much money for stock, in order to cover for their lack of used car stock acquisition expertise. 

The majority of this stock remains unsold and can now no longer be profitable; and with the businesses concerned unable to liquidate at the trade losses involved, (in order to free up funds for fresh stock), they are tied into reducing the scale of these losses via retailing, which will take time. 

I have no doubt that this will be behind We Buy Any Car’s reductions in their offer prices; I doubt they will ever state again that they are not buying, as they did in the pandemic, which was no doubt damaging to the business. Albeit by cutting offer prices by so much, this in effect is what they are saying, to those in the know! 

In reality, the job of reducing exposure to their current used car stock holding will be very challenging and take time. We Buy Any Car are a “One Trick Pony” used car business relying on tech and not the professionals required to keep acquiring used car stock and retailing it at a profit. As we are seeing, the tech has many limitations; getting your business into dire trouble though, does not appear to be one of them! 

So with liquidity in used car markets running out, where to turn now for the owners of specialist high performances cars; those looking for the right expertise and experience? That required to facilitate in the immediate liquidation of their car; a process requiring skill, expertise, the utmost discretion and excellence in execution? 

Well with funds available for immediate purchase and unrivalled experience in liquidating specialist high performance cars, including the contacts base within the professional community, (both franchised dealers and the most knowledgeable specialists), you could contact me for a market consultation. 

As much as I am not going to promise you for one moment that I work with every car that is offered, or with every owner that contacts me, I do choose to advise and help everyone who contacts me. In reality I can only work actively with 10% of the owners who contact me; and their associated cars. 

Offering immediate cash purchase, (should circumstances dictate), or the facility to act as your trusted conduit to the market, returning the best prices, I am the ultimate solution provider for those looking to dispose of their specialist high performance car. 

Please feel free to reach out to me directly on LinkedIn, via email at andrewb@andrewbanningsalessolutions.co.uk or on 07500 321539; should you wish to arrange a consultation call. 

Andrew.